Kallanish Kallanish

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April, 26th 2018

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China Steel Intelligence

Issue 24 05 Apr 2018

CSI: Can trade wars support Chinese exports?

Trade wars are now the flavour of the day but so far the hard measures have yet to catch up with the aggressive rhetoric. An ongoing tit-for-tat response between China and the USA may well worsen over the coming months and change the picture for global trade.

In this issue however we take a look at the direct impacts of the tariffs announced so far on steel. The result may be counterintuitive: higher Chinese steel exports.

With concerns over Chinese domestic demand and international trade, the question now for the steel industry is will Chinese steel exports see a rebound?

Issue 23 02 Mar 2018

CSI: Will inventories sink the ship?

The dearth of data in February means a shorter CSI but that does not mean we cannot investigate some important features of the market. In fact, the build-up of inventory in the run up to the strong demand period after the Spring Festival holiday is often the single most important factor in determining the strength of steel markets. And this applies both in China and abroad each year. Although prices have held on since the holiday, after a drop for rebar at the start of the year, growing concern over inventories means there is little space for prices to increase.

The question now is, will real demand rescue the market or will inventories sink prices?

Issue 22 01 Feb 2018

CSI: Has the steel export mix changed forever?

China’s high and rapidly growing export volumes used to be the single most important factor in global steel pricing but 2017 saw a sharp reversal, opening up markets to greater competition.

A closer look at the data however shows not all products and regions are seeing decline and in this issue we look in more detail at how China’s steel export flows actually changed.

How these flows change is likely to have a significant impact on both domestic and overseas markets and looking at how different products compare is essential to understand how differing markets will be impacted.

The question now is, how have Chinese exports been transformed and will the same trends hold?

Issue 21 05 Jan 2018

CSI: Strap yourselves in for a bumpy 2018

As the new year begins the outlook for Chinese steel is far more positive than it was a year ago, but it is unlikely to repeat the success it had over the last twelve months.

In this issue we break down our forecasts for the year by sector, as well as the key overarching trends, especially in policy, which inform our numbers.

Our conclusions are that, while overall demand is unlikely to grow further and should trend slowdown down over the coming years, short term volatility will remain high, or even increase.

The political environment is priming prices for sudden and unexpected movements, and market participants will have to react quickly to make the most of short term opportunities.

The question now is, how wrong will the analysts be this year? And why?