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Kallanish Kallanish

Knowledge matters Knowledge matters

June, 23rd 2018

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China Steel Intelligence

Issue 26 04 Jun 2018

Will China's demand spike last?

After a troubled start to the year, China’s steel market has improved dramatically since April. Strong demand continued in May but there were moments in the month when it appeared demand was sliding. At the same time, production restrictions over winter have been replaced by other restrictions in some areas, particularly because of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit. How these factors will balance in the coming weeks will decide in what state the market enters the next period of stronger demand at the end of summer.

 

Internationally meanwhile, the threat of trade wars has not abated. While this has had a detrimental impact on some public data, we round up some of our latest reportage on President Trump’s tariffs in the export section of this issue. Trade may still turn out to be a distraction however.

The question that global steel markets should be asking is will China’s steel demand spike last?

 

Issue 25 01 May 2018

Is the world ready for the next phase of Asian growth?

Kallanish Asia Steel Markets 2018 in Vietnam’s Ho Chi Minh City over 18- 19 April brought together mills, traders and analysts from across the continent and beyond, so this week we are giving over some space to share with you some of the key trends, developments and ideas discussed at the event. That means we’ll be covering China, Southeast Asia and India, and we’ll be talking about capacity investments, trade and raw materials. China’s steel market meanwhile has been strong in the last month, restoring some confidence in prices this year. The appalling demand data for Q1 can be explained by distortions which have pulled demand into Q2. Now that the short term panic is over, we can turn again to the bigger picture.

The question now is, how should the industry react to the growing importance of Southeast Asia?

Issue 24 05 Apr 2018

CSI: Can trade wars support Chinese exports?

Trade wars are now the flavour of the day but so far the hard measures have yet to catch up with the aggressive rhetoric. An ongoing tit-for-tat response between China and the USA may well worsen over the coming months and change the picture for global trade.

In this issue however we take a look at the direct impacts of the tariffs announced so far on steel. The result may be counterintuitive: higher Chinese steel exports.

With concerns over Chinese domestic demand and international trade, the question now for the steel industry is will Chinese steel exports see a rebound?

Issue 23 02 Mar 2018

CSI: Will inventories sink the ship?

The dearth of data in February means a shorter CSI but that does not mean we cannot investigate some important features of the market. In fact, the build-up of inventory in the run up to the strong demand period after the Spring Festival holiday is often the single most important factor in determining the strength of steel markets. And this applies both in China and abroad each year. Although prices have held on since the holiday, after a drop for rebar at the start of the year, growing concern over inventories means there is little space for prices to increase.

The question now is, will real demand rescue the market or will inventories sink prices?