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September, 19th 2017

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China Steel Intelligence

Issue 17 31 Aug 2017

CSI: China gambles on speculator curbs

China’s steel markets gained strength again in August, sending spot prices higher and boosting confidence. This strength is causing two separate issues, weak exports and increased futures trading. Higher futures prices have now prompted curbs on speculators, sending ferrous futures markets into confusion. Ironically, attempts to reduce the risk of speculators crashing commodity markets is creating uncertainty over when and how the government will intervene. In this issue we look at whether or not risk has been increasing in ferrous futures markets and whether interventions are helping.

Issue 16 31 Jul 2017

CSI: Second half has a lot to live up to

After a stronger-than-expected first half it is time to review Kallanish’s expectations for 2017. In this issue we revise our output data to account for induction furnace capacity, and look at the knock-on implications for apparent and end user demand.  Because including induction furnaces means our forecasts won’t match official data, this year we will publish two sets of forecasts: one set covers output and demand including induction furnaces; the other is where this should leave official data.



Issue 15 03 Jul 2017

CSI: Can China's markets rebalance?

China’s wet summer has helped to ease the imbalance between rebar and hot rolled coil which has sent rebar prices soaring over HRC. The surge in rebar prices had been driven by capacity closures but the removal of that capacity does not necessarily mean that the rebar has now become permanently tight. 

Issue 14 02 Jun 2017

CSI: What the scrap?

Heading into summer, Chinese steel markets have remained surprisingly firm despite several warning signals starting to creep into the market. This has been in part because of a minimal slowdown in demand but mainly because of the continuing knock-on effects of the closure of induction furnace capacity.