Issue 51, 2024 - This week's editorial: European prices rise amid safeguard review, India tackles imports

European hot rolled coil mill asking prices rose last week, while rebar values were under upward pressure from unforeseen incidents. Who would have thought in this economic climate? Domestic suppliers were given a confidence boost when the European Commission launched a safeguard measure review investigation, which could result in tighter import quotas. India also launched its much-anticipated safeguard probe into flat steel imports, which some expect will be fast-tracked for completion before the February budget. Chinese steel prices meanwhile went in the opposite direction, falling amid weak demand and rising inventory. The Turkish scrap price rise also ran out of momentum.

ArcelorMittal was reported by sources to be raising coil prices by €20/tonne ($20.9) in Europe for delivery in the new year, with lead times at the steelmaker’s plants in Europe now extended to February and March. The prospect of tighter import restrictions also fuelled the rise. This is despite economic fundamentals showing no improvement in Europe. 

Rebar prices in Germany meanwhile saw upward pressure after renewable electricity prices spiked amid a lack of wind and sunlight, while the Moselle River incident threatened scrap transport disruptions.

The EU’s safeguard review, launched following a request by 13 Member States, will reassess the allocation and management of the tariff-rate quotas (TRQs), and whether the list of developing nations exempted from duties needs updating, based on imports in 2024. The Commission will conclude the review investigation by 31 March 2025. Any resulting decision may become applicable as of the start of a new quarter – 1 April 2025 – including with a new TRQ volume.

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