Turkish scrap import prices have slumped over $10/tonne this week following their $30/t crash last week as the recent build-up of scrap supply continued to pressure pricing, market participants tell Kallanish.

Only one booking has been heard so far this week, from Canada for 15,000 tonnes of shredded, 30,000t of HMS 1&2 90:10 and 5,000t of P&S scrap at an average of $312.50/t cfr Turkey. This gives a HMS 1&2 80:20 indicative price of $307-308/t. Scrap ended last week at $320/t, having fallen from $350/t the week before.

CIS billet quotes have followed, with participants reporting $500/t fob Black Sea available from some suppliers, but no deals were heard as many buyers expect a further price drop.

Turkish mills are refraining from announcing any official quotes for rebar exports, instead waiting for buyers to come to them with firm bids. This is a typical tactic when steel prices are falling, sources say. “No one is giving a high bid right now,” says one Turkish trader. Another observes: “One of the mills I heard offered around $520/t fob… I think we are going to hear $500-510 levels if mills do not get any orders from export markets.”

A number of sources agree that $520-525/t fob is a workable price today for Turkish rebar exports.

Questions remain over how far the current price downtrend will go, and these are unlikely to be fully answered until at least after China’s holiday in the first week of October. EAF mill representatives said at an industry meeting in Europe this week that steel prices are unlikely to fall much further as the higher cost of electrodes is offsetting lower scrap prices.

However, various sources disagree with this argument. “I think they (Turkish mills) are hiding themselves behind this electrode problem… If they cannot supply billet, somebody else will.” Another trader exclaims: “Forget the electrodes' price!” These may have increased production cost by up to $50/t, he adds, but scrap has dropped by the same amount in the last two weeks. “They’re still making a profit,” he concludes.