Turkish mills’ long steel quotes, which have been ticking down since October, showed no recovery this week. However, more market participants now believe the bottom has been reached.

Mills’ official export quotes for rebar on Thursday were mostly at around $565-575/tonne fob Turkey actual weight, and at $575-580/t fob for mesh-quality wire rod, down $5/t on-week. 

Demand remains sluggish as the downtick continues. Moreover, North African suppliers continue to determine their offers based on Turkish quotes, ensuring they remain $20/t cheaper.

Yemen has been the major market recently, with one mill selling 15,000-20,000 tonnes at around $550/t fob Turkey theoretical weight to the country. Two other mills were also active in the country and concluded sales.

Some small-volume sales were heard to Romania, Bosnia and Albania, although Turkish mills say the fourth quarter is the weakest this year in terms of sales to these countries. Most buyers are limiting their purchases to urgent needs amid the availability of competitive offers from North Arica.

Sales to Northern Cyprus continue, though at a slower pace on-week.

South American buyers remain out of the market this week. Turkish mills expect a recovery in their demand in January.

The sales to Palestine, which became the second-largest export market in October, have decreased significantly. This follows Turkish authorities’ mandating of Palestinian Ministry of National Economy confirmation for each deal that material is delivered to Palestine and the buyer is a Palestinian importer.

Some mills are seen resisting prices below $570/t fob for rebar, while those that are more aggressive have expressed their readiness to sell at $560-565/t for notable tonnages and firm bids.

A trader tells Kallanish: “Amid the global contraction, it is a buyers’ market. The mills, concerned about margin protection, refused bids at $600/t only weeks ago. They now regret this and are trying to sell at lower levels. They are successfully maintaining the scrap-rebar margin but are failing to sell, while North African sellers are taking over our markets.”

Another trader adds: “There are too many uncertainties, specifically about what will happen after Trump takes over the US presidency, how China and India will react and so on.”

A mill says: “Trump’s presidency can be a very good opportunity for us if he ends the wars as he echoes in his election speeches. Turkey can benefit from the re-construction in neighbouring countries, such as Syria, Palestine, Ukraine and so on. However, his protectionist attitude carries risks for the Turkish steel industry.”

Another mill notes: “All our customers are eyeing scrap prices. Once they believe scrap has settled, we will see a resumption in demand. As the scrap fall continues, buyers are either delaying purchases or pressuring prices.”

In the scrap market, meanwhile, suppliers are seen trying to keep offer levels at above $335/t cfr Turkey. Although there are rumours of two deals from the Baltic, these were not confirmed by deadline. 

In Turkey’s domestic rebar market, demand recorded no improvement on Thursday, with mills’ offers at $565-570/t ex-works, down from $570-580/t a week earlier. Additional discounts were available on firm bids.