Seaborne iron ore prices and Chinese steel futures both strengthened slightly on Wednesday as firm economic data buoyed confidence. Looking behind the data however there was still plenty to worry about and an increase in end user buying may still be matched by higher output.

The Kallanish index for 62% Fe Australian fines gained $1.48/tonne to $71.48/dry metric ton cfr Qingdao. 170,000 tonnes of PB fines sold at $70.32/t with a laycan in 9-18 April. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange May iron ore settled up CNY 5/t at CNY 485/t ($76.59/t), while on the Singapore Exchange April 62% Fe futures settled up $1.53/t at $69.95/t.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange the May rebar contract closed at CNY 3,735/t ($590/t), CNY 40/t higher than Tuesday, while the same contract for hot rolled coil closed up CNY 45/t at CNY 3,856/t. In Tangshan billet prices recovered CNY 10/t to CNY 3,570/t.

Chinese economic data released Wednesday again brought mixed news for steel. Despite a surge in steel production, Kallanish calculates that real steel demand fell in the first two months of the year (see separate article). Some standard indicators were positive for steel however. Industrial value-added was up 7.2% year-on-year, the fastest growth since June 2017, while fixed asset investment was up 7.9% in January-February, the fastest since January-July.

Those numbers suggest demand should recover in the coming weeks, although real estate poses a more problematic picture (see separate article). Demand will have to hurry though. Some restrictions on steelmaking in northern China expire on Thursday 15 March, suggesting steel output could increase even further.