China exported 4.89 million tonnes of finished steel products in October, down -35.3% year-on-year, customs figures show. The figures leave China’s exports for 2017 on track to be around 75-80mt, down around -30% from 2016 and as much as -33% from the peak of 112mt in 2015, Kallanish notes.

China exported just 157,742 tonnes/day of steel in October, the lowest figure since February 2013. Volumes in October continued to be hit by high Chinese domestic and export prices. Chinese export 2mm SAE1006B increased steadily to a peak price of $590-600/tonne fob on 15 September, meaning Chinese exporters struggled to compete with offers from other suppliers.

By the end of September SAE1006B prices had slipped to $550-560/t fob. With the time lag between deals being signed and shipment, there could be a small recovery in export volumes before the end of the year. This is unlikely to break the trend of weak volumes however, and exports should remain firmly down y-o-y in November and December.

Over the first ten months of the year China exported 64.49mt of steel, down -30.4% y-o-y. If exports remain as weak as in October then volumes for the year could hit just 75mt, although volumes could recover slightly in December.

Chinese steel import volumes meanwhile fell to 950,000t in October, from 1.24mt in September and down -12% year-on-year, customs figures show. That brought imports over the first ten months of the year up 0.5% y-o-y to 10.96mt.