Polish apparent stainless steel consumption is forecast to increase 4.7% on-year in 2019 to over 516,000 tonnes. This would be in excess of 500,000t for the first time in history, says Poland’s Stainless Steel Association (SSN).

However, this depends on economic performance in the second half of the year, which could be worse than in H1. This is evident by the increasing deterioration in Germany’s automotive industry, on which the EU economy is dependent. On the other hand, however, the construction sector in Poland and Western Europe is performing strongly.

Polish apparent stainless steel consumption rose 2% on-year in 2018 to 493,000t thanks to national economic growth and increased industrial activity, SSN says in its annual report. This is in excess of the association’s forecast published a year ago of 475,000t.

The growth was tempered by the effects of the global trade war, which was fuelled by US trade policy, and the introduction by the EU of safeguard quotas on steel imports, SSN observes.

The EU measures were implemented in July 2018 in response to the US Section 232 tariffs introduced by President Trump earlier in 2018. “Unfortunately, these actions in no way lead to stability in the market,” SSN says in the report monitored by Kallanish. “On the contrary, they increased the confusion caused by the supply of material, and ultimately resulted in a fall in prices.” Only when definitive quotas were introduced last February was more certainty brought to the market.

The beginning of 2019 was noticeably better than stainless market participants expected, SSN continues, as a result of the EU safeguard quotas and the fact the Polish economy resisted the forecasted slowdown.

In 2018 Polish stainless steel imports rose 1% on-year to 623,300t but exports fell -3% to 130,000t. Cold rolled stainless steel sheet was both the most imported and exported product with 286,200t and 65,600t respectively.