Indian hot rolled coil export offers have dropped marginally on slow demand in Vietnam and the Middle East. Indian mills are in wait-and-watch mode and currently not offering due to instability in coking coal offers and declining demand in overseas markets.

Indian-origin 2mm+ SAE grade HRC offers to Vietnam decreased by $10/tonne to $880-890/t cfr Ho Chi Minh City. However, buyers’ expectations are at $860-870/t, Kallanish notes.

“Indian mills have become silent,” says a senior trader active in ASEAN. “The market is seeing a drop in semi-finished steel offers; billet offers have plunged to $605-610/t fob India now against $620-630/t fob last week. The shortage of coking coal has led to coking coal offers touching the sky. If they [mills] book coking coal now, then they will get November deliveries at comparatively high prices. Mills are aiming for high offers to match the rising feedstock prices and anticipating the dynamic will improve after China’s [Golden Week] holiday.”

“Last week, a few mills were heard to offer HRC at $830-840/t ex-plant, but owing to the current situation they have become silent now,” the trader adds.

Indian offers to United Arab Emirates and its neighbouring countries are said by Indian traders to be at $930-940/t cfr Jebel Ali, with buyers’ expectations at $900-905/t cfr. Earlier in the week, however, Gulf Cooperation Council sources suggested Indian offers had already dropped to meet bids (see Kallanish passim).

“The expectation of buyers in the Middle East has declined on the back of unusual discounts offered to them by domestic mills in the Middle East region,” says a senior Indian trader active in the Middle East. “Indian mills on the other hand are reluctant to drop their offers, owing to which no deal was heard this week.”

European buyers of Indian HRC have become silent too, owing to the exhausted EU safeguard quota for Indian HRC. However, Indian mills are offering HRC at $1,010-1,015/t cfr Europe, excluding 25% safeguard duty.

“The situation has become worse in European ports,” says a trader active in Europe. “Cargoes are stuck at European ports and waiting for berthing, owing to which buyers are reluctant to place the orders now. Indian mills and traders are anticipating a hike in offers for January delivery on the back of a rise in raw materials prices and increased ocean freight at $110-115/t.”

On the back of the market downtrend and slow demand, no deals from India to any destination have been heard this week. However, Kallanish heard earlier this week that three Indian mills are competing to secure a HRC export deal to Oman.