Indian domestic hot and cold rolled coil prices rose slightly week-on-week as the domestic market reopened this week following the Diwali holiday, but it is not yet fully operational, Kallanish learns from sources. 

Sources say some mills have already announced their November prices, which were hiked by around INR 1,000/tonne ($12/t), while other mills are expected to make their announcements in the coming days.

A source says the price increase may be due to no new import bookings and possible lower HRC import arrivals in the next few weeks, or the recent rise in rebar prices.

“It's expected that the market may accept the price increase of INR 1,000/t on HRC after 15 November,” the source adds.

Another market participant says there is no clear indication for price direction as the market has just reopened after Diwali.

But prices will likely roll over for November, and coil and plate prices are unlikely to drop below current levels in the near term, he estimates.

A trader concurs, estimating prices may see an INR 1,000-2,500/t increase this month. He expects values are likely to rise due to robust demand and consumption, which helps offset the rise in high inventory, especially from cheaper imports. 

High inventory and liquidity shortages have been impacting domestic demand in recent months. This is due to excessive supply from cheaper-origin imports, especially from China and Vietnam.

Last week, sources said demand may pick up later this month, while others expect it may occur in December, once the remaining import shipments from Japan, South Korea and Vietnam arrive in India (see Kallanish passim).

Indian domestic HRC offer prices rose by INR 1,000 week-on-week to INR 47,500-48,500/t ex-Mumbai for IS2062/E250 BR grade.

Domestic CRC offers are flat on-week at INR 55,000-56,000/t ex-Mumbai, for IS513 Grade O.

Domestic HR plate offers were unchanged on-week at INR 49,000-49,500/t ex-Mumbai, for base E-250 or S235 equivalent grade.

In the import market, China, Vietnam, Japan and South Korea continued to remain off the market for the third consecutive week. Vietnam, Japan and South Korea have free trade agreements with India and do not pay the additional 7.5% basic customs duty which China currently faces.

The last heard China-origin import offers were at $490-495/t fob China or $520-525/t cfr Indian ports, for commercial-quality base grades.

Japan and South Korean offers were last heard between $510-530/t cfr Mumbai, for commercial-quality base HRC grades. All import quotes are for the same grades and shipment times.

Chinese suppliers’ Indian BIS licences expired on 2 November, and Vietnam’s BIS licence is due to expire on 4 December. Vietnam’s nearing license expiry and the anti-dumping probe initiated by India into Vietnamese HRC have made importers wary of booking deals from this origin. The market widely believes China and Vietnam's BIS licences are unlikely to be renewed soon.

Imported HR plate offers from FTA countries, notably Japan and South Korea, were heard at around $550/t cfr Mumbai this week, for S355 grade, November shipment.