Gulf Cooperation Council hot rolled coil prices have increased $15-25/tonne versus last week, driven by a Chinese domestic market rebound and concluded export deals of mainly Q195 grade destined for Turkey, Kallanish notes.

"HRC buyers in GCC are hesitant and afraid of a price collapse. Their hands were burned in the third quarter in 2022 due to a sudden and drastic price decrease,” comments a trader. "Buyers are more conservative this time when it comes to concluding deals." 

Major Indian mills are heard stopping offering to gauge the price hike’s sustainability and wait until the European HRC market settles. This week, some are targeting fob prices $5-25/t higher than their cfr GCC quotes last week. Last week, A tubemaker concluded a deal with an Indian mill for 11,000 tonnes of SPHT-2 and 3 grades, effective at $645/t cfr GCC port, for February shipment.

GCC re-rollers floated HRC enquiries for a combined tonnage of 45,000-50,000t. The largest of them released its enquiry last Friday for 25,000t of re-rolling SAE 1006 and SAE 1008 grades for March shipment, targeting $640/t cfr. However, a deal is expected to be concluded on Wednesday at around $650-660/t cfr UAE.

This week, delivered to GCC ports, 2mm SAE 1006 (re-rolling grade) and tube-making grade offers from an Indian mill are at $670/t for late-February shipment, after an increase of $15-25/t on-week. Ex-China product is at $663/t and ex-Taiwan at $670/t for March shipment. 

A South Korean mill is heard raising its target price for SAE 1006 grade to $670/t fob Korea for March shipment, equating to $710/t cfr GCC ports. The GCC’s sole HRC producer’s offers are heard at $710-715/t delivered within the bloc. This Saudi mill offers 90 days payment advantage against LC, inducing interest among buyers.

A Japanese major mill's SAE 1006 grade HRC offer at the end of December was at $670/t cfr GCC for March shipment. Its new price is expected to surface this week on Thursday or Friday.

"I don't think the HRC price hike will sustain because we already [this week] started to see fluctuations in the domestic market in China,” comments a sector analyst in China. “Another factor that could push up Chinese HRC prices in the next fortnight could be the Chinese yuan appreciation against the dollar, but it’s hard to predict as it has been hiking for a while."

In the Saudi market, a major Chinese supplier's initial price offer for 1.2mm thick SPHT-1 grade increased to $683/t cfr Dammam for March shipment.

Last Thursday, Egypt's major producer offered 2mm thickness base grade HRC at $710/t fob, for late-February/early-March shipment.

On 14 January, South Korea’s President will visit the UAE, accompanied by Samsung, Hyundai and major South Korean companies' highest-ranking officials, to discuss bilateral relations and ways to develop trade and manufacturing capabilities in UAE. Due to the damage it sustained to its downstream line, South Korean steel giant Posco significantly increased its GCC HRC market share in the fourth quarter with attractive prices.