The long steel market is being reshaped by an unprecedented wave of trade measures and protectionist policies, Kallanish notes from the outlook by the International Rebar Exporters and Producers Association (Irepas).

“The scenario for global long steel trade is being rewritten by governments,” it says.

“Overall, the current environment is not bright...competition in the global market is at near-maximum levels,” Irepas states, forecasting an “unstable and highly volatile market outlook.”

“Scrap prices continue to rise, making semis a more attractive option,” as scrap prices have surged by $30/tonne in recent weeks, prompting EAF mills to turn to semi-finished imports, particularly from Asia.

“It is a battle of costs right now and nothing else matters,” it adds.

The unpredictability of the US administration has pressured the market, making businesses hesitant to act. Rapid, unexpected policy shifts have left market players uncertain about the future.

The US steel market remains unstable, with buyers making opportunistic purchases ahead of duty hikes. Rebar demand has slowed due to high interest rates and reduced construction activity, while competition among domestic producers intensifies.

While China’s national congress provided some promising news, doubts remain over whether production cuts will be enforced. Weak domestic prices continue to make exports an attractive option for Chinese mills.

In Europe, mills are frustrated with revised safeguard measures, arguing they fail to protect against surging imports. Importers, on the other hand, claim the measures favour inefficient domestic producers at the expense of downstream industries.

“The new safeguard measures in the EU will surely force some exporting countries to slow down,” Irepas adds.