The Gulf Cooperation Council hot rolled coil market is silent as buyers are uncertain how the Indian government’s 15% export duty will impact prices going forward.

Buyers are unsure about Indian mills’ minimal-quantity-of-boron-added HRC offers under different HS codes. The low buying appetite is also keeping prices of other origins unchanged on-week, Kallanish observes.

This week, 2mm+ re-rolling grade (SAE 1006) HRC offers are unchanged for Chinese, South Korean, Taiwanese and Japanese material at $840-860/tonne cfr GCC for July shipment. Meanwhile, a 40,000-tonne Australia-origin HRC cargo was offered at $850/t and Saudi-origin at $880-900/t, both cfr UAE and July shipment. On the other hand, Indian boron-added material price offers are heard at $840-850/t cfr for July shipment, but are negotiable. 

"Based on Indian mills’ offers to the Vietnam market, we feel that Indian boron-added HRC can be booked at $800-810/t cfr GCC,” explains a regional sector participant. “Indian mills have announced that the seller will cover the export duty charged on deals agreed before the export duty announcement. But if boron-added material will be included in the list and levied with an export duty, Indian mills insist on sharing it [the duty cost] equally, which discourages buyers.”

“Indian mills, which have a huge market share in our [GCC] market, have been pushed out of the game, but non-Indian HRC prices are still not increasing. That makes us adopt a wait-and-see policy to understand where the prices will head,” he adds.

"Pipemaking S235JR and S335JR grade HRC is restricted to a maximum of 8ppm boron, which is not enough to change the HSN code,” a buyer opines. “Buyers compelled to use these grades are supposed to find alternative sellers or non-boron added HRC from Indian mills at export-duty-levied prices; however, re-rollers are not [compelled to do so]. We can expect Indian mills to be more aggressive for HRC sales as they are obligated to sell their material.”

In Saudi Arabia, Hadeed has announced its August-rolling HRC prices, pegging 3mm+ thickness re-rolling SAE 1006 grade HRC at $1,020/t delivered in the country. However, for re-rollers, the firm is expected to compromise to below $900/t cpt within GCC countries.