Company leaders and industry experts voiced predictions and concerns for the low-carbon steel market at the 12th China International Steel Congress and 2023 Global Low-Carbon Metallurgy Innovation Forum held on 15 October in Shanghai, Kallanish learns.

Pinakin Chaubal, vice president of ArcelorMittal, said financial support and a large supply of green electricity are the two main problems for the industry to achieve carbon neutrality. But he did not give specific numbers for the industry's requirements.

Jeong-woo Choi, Posco Group chief executive and outgoing worldsteel chairman, forecasted the development of green steel will need investment of $300 billion globally in the industry itself. The figure jumps to $2.2 trillion if all related investment is considered.

Choi expects the share of green energy in total energy supply to the steel industry will rise to 31% in 2030 and 70% in 2050, compared with 16% now. However, “it [renewables] doesn’t have stable and economic supply conditions,” Choi commented. “Supply in 2030 is only expected to meet 22% [of total] demand.”

As a result, Choi estimated that the combined use of hydrogen and CCUS will struggle to see commercialisation in 2030 despite it being one of two vital pathways to decarbonisation. The mixed use of natural gas and hydrogen will be the solution for the transition period.

Blast furnaces are also forecasted to be widely used through the middle of the century. Ding Yulong, an academician of the Royal Academy of Engineering, forecasted that BF-BoF will still account for half of global steelmaking 2050. However, the extent of this remains unclear as Ding has developed a yet-to-be-commercially-used, closed-loop carbon recycling technology that is projected to reduce 90% of emissions in blast furnace steelmaking.

Despite the difficulties, the participants held positive expectations for eventual carbon neutrality, with no disappointing predictions heard by Kallanish at the meeting.

Mao Xinping, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said the steel industry’s carbon emissions in 2030 will be reduced by 15% compared with 2020, and 40%, 85% and 95% respectively each decade thereafter. “The remaining 5% carbon emissions in 2060 should be dealt with by carbon trading and CCUS technologies,” he added.

Jiang Tao, who is also an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, forecasted that China will consume 22.2 billion tonnes of crude steel in the next 30 years.