European longs mills are remaining upbeat as they see second quarter demand stronger than last year and are pondering new price hikes for May deliveries to stabilise the market, Kallanish understands from sources.

Historically Q2 is the strongest part of the year for long products. In addition this quarter’s demand is expected to be some 2% higher than Q2 2016 in most of Europe. A senior European mill source notes that in some markets the supply is tight for long products and this could become even tighter due to some planned stoppages in April.

According to Kallanish price series, German rebar prices remain at a peak since last seen previously in July 2016. Italian and South European price levels have lowered somewhat since end of March due to delays in the issuing of licences for exports to Algeria.

Sources in Germany have mixed feelings regarding prices, with most confirming that the market is holding up but some mentioning a possible downturn. In Southern Europe, sentiment is weaker, but scrap prices have recovered during the last seven days and the situation is looking up for the second part of April.

For May delivery, a major European mill, active mainly in Northern and Central Europe confirmed its intention to raise offers by €30-40/tonne ($31.8-42.4/t) for rebar, sections, merchant bars and wire rod mesh quality. The increase is driven by good demand and the need to restore the currently low margins.

While it is too soon to say if the increase will be accepted in the market, scrap prices in Turkey remain firm. Many believe therefore that the attempt to increase finished product prices in Europe could be a way to make sure these remain at the current levels. In Italy and Spain the situation is less certain, but it is expected that as soon as Algeria issues import licences (probably by the end of April) the market could jump €50/t.