While the introduction of safeguard measures by the European Commission has slowed import activity on the wider front, some buyers are still looking for alternatives to the dominance of the north-western EU mills.

The mills themselves, encouraged by relatively stable high prices and good utilisation, plus suggestions that they work to allocation and volume restrictions, are driving buyers to look abroad, sources suggest. One fabricator’s manager, with production plants in western as well as eastern European countries, has discovered Turkey as a reliable source for hot-rolled coil. Italy meanwhile does not qualify since the Ilva takeover, he tells Kallanish.

“The policy of allocation that the mills have had this year may well backfire once they are back looking for orders,” he says. He explains that the allocation made him look eastwards where he found good new contacts, “… and I won’t give them up if the EU mills come back signalling willingness to talk.”

In fact, that time may well have arrived, as some say that EU mills have suddenly become friendlier with regard to delivery options. While the general assumption is a relatively normal lead time of some 12 weeks, some buyers tell of signals that booking capacities are available sooner. This could mean that January delivery is still possible, sources say.  One source even tells of offers in mid-October for production actually within 2018 at a “… good price.” This tends to mean a level more likely below €550/t ex-works ($627/t) than above, Kallanish notes.