Poland will not be directly affected by 25% steel import tariffs in the US as it does not export steel to this country, according to Polish steelmaker Cognor.

The countries most in danger of being shut-out of the US market are also those that have very little presence in the EU market owing to their geographical distance, Cognor observes. “They will most likely find it difficult, however, to transfer their activity to the EU market,” the producer says in a report seen by Kallanish.

Although the EU is a net exporter of steel to the US, the majority of these supplies are unlikely to be impacted by US tariffs due to the specialised nature of EU products, according to Cognor. Moreover, President Trump has indicated he will be willing to negotiate exemptions with individual countries, “…so the issue of tariffs is perhaps part of forming a position in the wider dialogue of balancing trade flows between the US and EU,” the firm opines.

Another risk cited by Cognor is the potential increase in prices of raw materials, especially those used by electric arc furnace-based mills. A good example, says Cognor, is the recent six-fold increase in graphite electrode prices. “For now, EAF producers have managed to transfer their increased costs to customers, but such occurrences are undermining their competitiveness versus BOF producers, which might have negative consequences in future,” the steelmaker concludes.

Cognor’s finished product sales fell -1% on-year in 2017 to 472,689 tonnes but semi-finished steel sales surged 47% to 185,424t (see separate story).