The lull in Black Sea billet market trade has been disturbed by just one sale this week, at a price slightly lower than offers, but for a large volume.

A Qatari mill acquired a 30,000-tonne consignment of Ukrainian billet at $580/tonne cfr, netting back to "…$540/t fob [Black Sea], with $35/t freight and $4-5/t for extras," an insider source tells Kallanish, echoing several others. The cargo is for March loading, indicating that some CIS mills are about to quicken the pace of market involvement, as they are approaching a critical time to make bookings for March-loading material, which is still available. 

Describing the market as quiet, and the price of the Ukrainian cargo sale as "…spot on", traders expect the general lull to continue, as China prepares for a long break in mid-February. Prices of scrap and rebar also continue to correct.

Very few participants are expecting a rebound in prices this month and indeed quarter, noting that such a move would be possible on a powerful finished product price rebound, which is not expected yet. However, this could be possible when more funds are allocated for post-Covid-19 economic revival later this year, or in 2022.

Turkish billet offers at $570/t fob Turkey are also without buyers, as they are considered too high, exacerbated further by newly implemented and existing import restrictions in North African countries. Weaker Southeast Asian demand is also weighing, at least on sentiment which is weaker there this week, and the forecast is bleak, not least in view of the approaching holidays.

As Turkish scrap import prices have reached $400/t cfr Turkey, the CIS billet-HMS 1/2 80:20 scrap spread is sticking at $135-140/t, where it has been since the declines started. CIS billet prices are expected to continue to follow the Turkish scrap trajectory, unless major supply disruptions in either commodity appear, traders note. Demand is lukewarm, with the majority of participants settling down for another couple of weeks of idleness, they tell Kallanish.