China’s steel exports in August were down sharply from July and year-on-year as strong Chinese prices finally took the edge off China’s competitiveness, if only temporarily. Exports remain up sharply over the year-to-date however and export deals are already resuming as Chinese domestic prices falter, Kallanish notes.

China exported 9.01 million tonnes of steel in August, down -7.4% from a year earlier and from 10.3mt in July, according to the latest customs data. That still leaves exports over January-July up 6.3% at 76.35mt however.

Export volumes are still expected to hit around 114mt over the full year, and this will need monthly volumes to average around 9.4mt for the rest of the year. Volumes in September are likely still to be fairly weak as high Chinese domestic prices have made export offers unattractive. The final months of the year should see higher volumes as prices, and Chinese steelmaking costs, slip.

With Chinese domestic prices showing signs of weakness this week, importers in Southeast Asia say Chinese export traders have been selling position cargos before prices dip further. They expect mill offers to be the next to drop and that should mean a pick-up in volumes after the October holidays.

China’s steel imports meanwhile were up 8.8% y-o-y to 1.11mt in August. Over the year-to-date, imports were still down -0.2% at 8.7mt as volumes gradually recover from a very weak start to the year.