China's finished steel exports continued a downward trend on a month-on-month basis in the last month of 2023, but total volume for the year still climbed to a seven-year high. Imports showed exactly the opposite trend, according to General Administration of Customs data.

December exports slipped 3.5% over November to 7.73 million tonnes, but still surged 43.1% year-on-year.

For the whole year, China exported a total of 90.26mt of finished steel products, Kallanish notes. The tonnage surged 36.2% from a year earlier but the export value lost 8.3%. Also, the annual export volume failed to exceed 2014-2016 levels despite touching a seven-year high.

December imports rose 8.3% m-o-m but declined 5% y-o-y to 665,000t. Annual imports were down 27.6% y-o-y to 7.65mt, with total value declining 25.8%.

It is worth noting that the sharp increase in export volume, which includes exports that have evaded VAT, has intensified the risk of trade friction. In 2023, five countries launched six trade remedy investigations against Chinese steel products.

Chinese officials have not yet shown any intention to suppress non-compliant exports, as China does not want to weaken its exports. However, as the recovery of foreign manufacturing industries accelerates, China's steel exports will undoubtedly face greater pressure this year than last year.