Global electric vehicle sales are forecast to see strong growth this decade as adoption is boosted by more affordable offers, increased customer appeal and supportive government policies.

The International Energy Agency said in its new Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2021 report, published on Thursday, that the number of EVs on global roads will rise to 145 million units by 2030. Last year, new EV sales rose 41% year-on-year to 3m cars, bringing the total global EV fleet to 11m units.

The Paris-based agency told Kallanish the outlook is bright and at least 230m EVs would be needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals.

“And if governments around the world pull together to pursue the even more ambitious goal of reaching net-zero emissions globally by 2050, the global electric vehicle fleet would grow even bigger,” it adds.

The momentum built in 2020, despite the pandemic and the slowdown in automotive sales in general, is expected to continue through 2021. In the first quarter of the year, EV sales already rose 140% y-o-y to 1.1m units, with EV market share doubling on-year.

Europe and China will continue to lead global EV markets, although sales in the US are also expected to increase. By 2030, EV sales (all modes) in India and Japan are forecast to reach market shares of 30% and 25%, respectively. The IEA notes that many countries around the world are yet to develop a clear vision or set targets for e-mobility.

While government policies and subsidies play a key role in the electrification of transport, the IEA reveals that the share of government spending on EVs is declining and currently stands at around 10%. According to the report, consumer spending in 2020 totalled $120 billion, compared to $14 billion from government spending.

There were 370 electric car models on offer in 2020, which is 40% higher than in 2019. Offers and options are set to increase as 18 of the 20 largest carmakers announce their plans to further increase their electric line-ups and boost production of light-duty vehicles. These carmakers account for 90% of all global auto sales.  

“Current sales trends are very encouraging, but our shared climate and energy goals call for even faster market uptake,” comments Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA. “Governments should now be doing the essential groundwork to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles by using economic recovery packages to invest in battery manufacturing and the development of widespread and reliable charging infrastructure.”