By 2030, the major green hydrogen sites in France will be the main cities, industrial complexes, airports, ports, automotive production facilities and “territorial hubs," or areas with strong potentials for hydrogen consumption.

By 2040, clean mobility will be the main driving sector for the expansion of green hydrogen, says French hydrogen association France Hydrogène in its green hydrogen roadmap report “Trajectoire pour une grande ambition Hydrogène."

With two scenarios for hydrogen development, the country and the association reaffirm their commitment to the green gas, Kallanish understands.

The first scenario called “ambition 2030” targets 680,000 tonnes of green hydrogen annual production by 2030. About 70% of this amount or 475,000 t/year are expected to be consumed by the industry while 23%, or 160,000 t/y, will be used by the mobility sector to power approximately 300,000 light vehicles, 5,000 heavy-duty, 65 vessels and 100 trains.

Almost 7% of the country’s total annual green H2 consumption, or 45,000 t will go into the energy sector. However, “these targets could be increased in case of favourable regulatory evolution,” the study says. Strengthening climate policies at the national and European level could greatly expand the market beyond the current 2030 French targets. A market boost may also result from the implementation of the European "Fit for 55" measures to support hydrogen supply and demand. The imposition of hydrogen quotas to force the industry to use renewable hydrogen for 50% of its consumption by 2030 would also stimulate production at lower costs, the report continues, and adds that the imposition of stricter CO2 emission reduction for the automotive sector would push automakers to develop more fuel cell vehicles.

The above changes would trigger a more ambitious hydrogen scenario that the association calls “ambition+ 2030."  According to this second plan, hydrogen consumption by 2030 would be pushed up to 1.09 million t/y.

Ambition+ 2030 would include 58% of hydrogen consumption from industry, or 635,000 t/y. About 425,000t/y, or 30%, will be consumed by the mobility sector powering 450,000 light vehicles, 10,000 heavy-duty trucks, 135 vessels and 250 trains. Ultimately, 12% of green hydrogen produced annually, or 130,000 t/y, would be consumed by the energy sector.

“This ambition would generate an annual market value between €2.5-4 billion ($2.9-4.7 billion) in hydrogen sales,” the association says. Both 2021-2030 scenarios will create the backbone of a solid H2 value chain and reduce costs for end-users in view of the clean mobility “massification” beyond 2030, the association concludes.