EV sales in Europe and the US are expected to rebound next year from their current “depressed” levels, according to analysts at Macquarie.

This bounce back will be led by ongoing declines in European and US CO2 emission targets and an uprating of the CO2 rating of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).

The narrative surrounding EVs is more negative than the actual performance, analysts caution, except in Europe.

Indeed, global passenger EV sales rose by 23% in the first nine months of 2024 compared to the same period last year. PHEV sales rose by 49%, a much faster rate than battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales, which were up by only 12% year-on-year, Kallanish notes.

China continues to dominate the market, representing 91% of the global growth between January and September. Conversely, Europe recorded negative growth, while the US rise is estimated to be in the single digits.

PHEV sales increased by 77% in China in the period, led by demand for extended-range models (EREVs), where the internal combustion engine (ICE) is used only to recharge the electric battery, not to drive the vehicle. 

EVs have reached price parity with their ICE counterparts in China, but are still 25-35% more expensive in Europe and the US.

China’s dominance is bad news for nickel and cobalt, as the metals aren’t used in lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which account for 60% of production in the Asian country.

Everywhere else in the world, LFP batteries hold a much lower share, although demand for batteries in general is weakened by lower BEV sales.

After “extremely strong” growth in 2021 and 2022, Chinese precursor cathode active material (pCam) production declined by 5% in 2023 and is expected to be little moved this year, the analysts predict.

“This suggests that the nickel and cobalt contained in electric vehicles shipped in 2023 and 2024 exceeded the actual estimated volume of nickel and cobalt consumed to make ternary precursors,” Macquarie analysts comment. “This implies extensive destocking through supply chains. You can only destock once and the data is suggestive of a reasonable recovery in raw materials demand in 2025 for nickel cobalt and lithium.”