Overview

The Kallanish Global Steel Markets August 2020 Webinar will focus on regional and global steel markets reviewed by the Kallanish editors. The webinar will cover the latest analysis of recent trends, market drivers and what to expect in the near future. 

>> Register here 

You have to register in advance for the webinar and when you do, you will receive a confirmation email with a unique joining link.  If more than one person from your organisation wants to join please make sure that they register individually as your access link will not work for other people.

Presentation & Video Recording

You can download the webinar presentation from the Global Steel Markets - August edition by clicking here.

Watch the recording below on our youtube channel.

Your webinar questions, answered

These are the questions which were asked during the live showing of the Global Steel Markets Webinar.  Some of these questions were answered live, but we didn't have time to answer them all.  Please see the Kallanish editorial teams answers below.

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Q: What about the capacities of AM Italia? Do they produce currently?

A: Yes, AM Italy is producing at the moment. They lowered their capacity by as much as 50% during the worst moment of the coronavirus. At the moment clear signs of strong output recovery have not been given to the market from the former Ilva, but we expect output to ramp up somewhat in September and October compared with May.

Q: What is your outlook for Southeast Asia in 2021?

A: The Southeast Asian Iron and Steel Institute (Seaisi) expects a 5% recover in 2021 and this is likely. The sector’s steel industry is heavily dependent on infrastructure and construction and there is likely to be significant financing available to these sectors are local governments aim to boost their economic recovery. As we have long noted however, there is a vast volume of recent and planned capacity additions in the region. Some of the more tentative projects may be at least delayed or cancelled. Others may face political hurdles. Nevertheless, steel capacity in the region is expected to continue to increase steadily. The region remains a net importer and countries in the region are likely to welcome any investment they can attract in the current climate.

Q: Iron ore has decline in the last couple of days, will this trend continue?

A: Iron ore prices have pulled back from the recent peak of $128.95/dmt cfr China as they came up against Chinese rebar producer margins. Port stocks for fines products remain very tight however and Chinese hot meta production remains at high levels. Prices are likely to fluctuate around current levels as port stocks mean they cannot decline very far, but rebar margins mean they cannot increase far either. The next significant decline in iron ore may only be driven by a slowdown in Chinese steel demand.

Q: Will steel exports from India to China continue to increase in the second half?

A: This trade has been driven by strong demand in China and weak demand in India. Chinese demand is approaching tis peak season and Indian mills no longer have material which can arrive in China during peak demand. Indian apparent steel demand is meanwhile already increasing as there is a round of restocking ahead of the end of the monsoon season. Trade for semi-finished steel will be more sustainable than for finished products, but the increase in volumes seen in the first half can probably not be sustained. Indian could remain a periodic supplier of steel to China, but not a constant high-volume supplier.

Q: What are the key markets which are picking up for Asian steel exports?

A: So far increasing exports from Asian suppliers (other than China) have really been driven by China’s strong demand. Because a key issue is steelmaking costs, imports of semi-finished steel have been very strong. For finished steel products the improvement in China’s manufacturing sector over the summer opened up a strong periodic arbitrage for HRC from India, Korea and elsewhere. Going forward however, Chinese demand is expected to shift back towards construction and infrastructure and finished stele imports are likely to play a smaller role.

Q: On EU - if you could quickly remind us what did utilisation levels drop to, back in April-May (understand its edging to 60-70% for Aug/Sep).

A: EU output in April and May dropped by some 50-30% depending on the countries. Germany for example saw its output dropping by over 25% in April, while Italy saw the decrease going above 40%.

Q: Do you think Imports in EU are impacting the market in any way, especially since the latest review into quarterly quota

A: At the moment we cannot say imports are impacting the EU market. Most sources confirm options from imports are not available and the current price levels in Europe do not seem to be too attractive for international suppliers.