Session 1: The changing globe – how increasing uncertainty and megatrends impact steel markets

Besides the all-encompassing energy transition, increasing geopolitical fragmentation, slow economic growth, significant structural changes in China’s economy and structural hurdles in Europe are significantly affecting the steel industry. These factors are having a profound impact on steel consumption, trade patterns, and investment decisions, as well as long-established value chains, production processes and policies towards steel. Lower Chinese steel consumption has resulted in a huge increase in steel exports from the country, which have displaced steel supply in other Asian nations westwards. Europe is undergoing deindustrialisation amid increased energy, environmental and labour costs, and tough external competition. Its future as an iron-maker is in doubt. War in Ukraine and the Middle East is dampening investor confidence and disrupting trade, not to mention exacerbating geopolitical tensions. The world seems to be drifting apart. And this at a time when the global steel industry has been tasked with eliminating the 8% of global CO2 emissions it produces. Where do we go from here? This session will examine the main elements influencing the global steel industry, including the megatrends defining the decade.

Topics:

• •  How will the Chinese steel market evolve in 2025?
• •  How will the energy transition impact steel business?
• •  To what extent will new technology shape the industry?
• •  How can businesses respond to increasing fragmentation?
• •  Is resource nationalism inevitable?
• •  Is deindustrialisation in Europe a foregone conclusion?
• •  Will we see more trade cases in 2025?
• •  To what extent will the electric automotive industry’s role in steel consumption diminish?
• •  How are changing consumer attitudes towards climate driving emissions reduction?
• •  Will global overcapacity threaten the progress of decarbonisation investments?

☕ Coffee Break ☕

Session 2: What’s driving the global scrap market? A look into trade, policy & energy

Business cycles in the steel industry are becoming more unpredictable due to uncertainty, rapid changes in trade routes, and a lack of funding to drive steel demand, forcing scrap providers to adjust. Turkey's dominance in the seaborne scrap market is challenged by the Indian subcontinent, and legislative constraints are appearing on scrap trade amid the increasing electrification of steelmaking. On the other hand, Chinese semi and finished steel exports are weighing on Turkish scrap demand. While scrap demand is set to increase amid greatly expanding EAF capacities, high energy costs and insufficient measures to boost economic growth are hindering supply. This session will discuss the primary opportunities and challenges facing the global scrap market, and emerging global players such as India, Egypt, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Topics:

• •  Are Turkish imports still the global scrap market maker?
• •  Will China ramp up scrap imports? Will it ever enter the export market?
• •  How is India’s increasing scrap import demand shaping the market?
• •  How would global trade be affected by scrap export restrictions in the largest supplier, the EU?
• •  How do increasing energy costs in some regions, including Turkey, impact scrap business?
• •  To what extent will steelmaking electrification change trade patterns?
• •  What is the scope for Bangladesh and Pakistan scrap demand growth and impact on trade?
• •  To what extent are Chinese billet exports impacting scrap demand?
• •  Will the US remain a major scrap exporter amid its domestic industry decarbonisation?

🍴 Lunch Break 🍴

Session 3: New trends in global scrap

Steelmakers are increasingly looking to vertical integration, buying up scrap processors in order to ensure feedstock supply security at a time when scrap is becoming a critical resource. Various scrap markets are meanwhile emerging as major buyers and threatening to reconfigure long-established trade routes. Technology development is touted to improve scrap processing, thereby raising yield and lowering emissions. To what extent are suppliers reorienting towards new markets? Does the prospect of closed-loop recycling present an opportunity or challenge for scrap suppliers? How are scrap suppliers adapting to low-emission requirements? This session will delve into why mills are finding it important to secure scrap expertise, as well as analysis of global scrap trade with a particular focus on new markets.

Topics:

• •  Why are steelmakers investing into scrap and what is the outlook?
• •  What are the prospects for scrap demand from the emerging buyers?
• •  Which new scrap supplying and buying markets can we expect to impact global trade?
• •  What is the outlook for seaborne scrap trade amid decarbonisation?
• •  How can technology advancements prepare scrap supply for future low-emission demand?

☕ Coffee Break ☕

Session 4: Where are scrap prices heading in 2025?

Scrap prices in Turkey in 2024 witnessed the most stable trend in their history. Tight supply prevented values from falling to the levels desired by buyers, while Turkish producers' tight margins and limited demand stopped prices from rising, narrowing the room for price movement. As the energy transition raises EAF steelmaking share and scrap supply remains restricted amid weak manufacturing output in mature economies, there is an expectation that demand for scrap and, therefore, its prices will be pushed up. India carried the scrap market in 2023 amid Turkish mills’ lack of global competitiveness, but Turkey bounced back in the second half of 2024 as trade cases and supply disruption helped it boost steel exports to Europe. Who will drive demand in 2025? How will shifting US steel industry dynamics and continued weak European manufacturing output impact scrap supply? This session will look at how scrap prices charted over 2024 and where they are heading in 2025.

Chairman’s closing remarks

🍸Cocktail reception🍸