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CSI: A longer road to recovery (Sept. 7, 2023)

China’s main steel-consuming sectors now have a longer road to recovery. With steel consumption unlikely to recover significantly, production cuts in H2 would be needed to support steel prices.

August was plagued by overall weaker macro-financial data and weaker-than-expected stimulus policies. The performance in the first month of the third quarter weakened confidence across the board, and the market was concerned that the government had not started any strong economic stimulus one month after the Politburo economic meeting in late-July. The steel market has not been immune, especially as production was increasing despite talk of production cuts. These signals suggest a longer road to recovery for both the wider economy and for steel markets.

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