Issue 15, 2025 - This week's editorial: US-China trade war plateaus, government seizes British Steel

Chinese steel prices plunged last week after the US-China tariff tit for tat went into overdrive, while Turkish scrap prices went into free fall amid weak steel demand and cheap imported billet. The UK government meanwhile passed a new law to allow it to take control of British Steel from Chinese owner Jingye. US consumer uncertainty amid continuously changing tariffs – surprise, surprise – continued to hamper purchasing, while Tata Steel Nederland announced 1,600 job cuts due to its deteriorating financial situation. Oh, and the EU imposed provisional hot rolled coil anti-dumping duties, but exempted Hoa Phat. What didn’t happen last week?

Donald Trump’s vendetta against US trading partners became a US-China trade war last week after the US President rolled back “reciprocal” tariffs on every country except China to 10%. For the latter, he raised the levy to 145%, with China then slapping a 125% on US goods. Observers pointed out that, at this high level of tariff, it makes little difference if the levy is 100% or 1,000% – trade is effectively blocked.

In any case, the escalation and unpredictability of Trump’s next move sent shockwaves through the global steel market. In China, domestic HRC and rebar prices fell to eight- and seven-month lows respectively, and mills and traders were said to be operating on a hand to mouth basis.

Turkish scrap prices continued their free fall after a mill bought HMS 1&2 80:20 at $350/tonne cfr Türkiye. Although sources questioned how representative the deal is of the true market value, weak Turkish steel sales and scrap cargo availability exceeding demand put downward pressure on prices. Moreover, one Turkish mill bought 100,000 tonnes of Chinese billet at around $460/t cfr Türkiye, while another producer bought at $457/t cfr. More producers were heard to be negotiating for Chinese billet on Friday.

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