US rebar prices are flat for a third consecutive week, as market participants contemplate strong scrap market sentiment against demand uncertainty and trade war concerns, Kallanish reports.

The spot price range for US domestic #4 rebar in 20-foot sticks is unchanged at $770-790/short ton.

Expectations for this week’s US scrap trading window remain firmly for a $30/gross ton increase for cut grades and $50/gt for busheling. Supporting the higher scrap outlook is the ongoing uptick in US hot rolled coil values, which have been reported as high as $900/short ton ex-works (see Kallanish 27 February), and limited scrap supply resulting from cold weather, as well as tariff announcements (see separate story).

In the face of the overall uncertainty, some sources refer back to the rebar supply-and-demand equation for fundamental clues.

“Supply, demand, scrap pricing. These three things usually are good predictors of what [rebar] pricing will do,” states a mid-Atlantic distributor. “Supply is adequate, even with imports being displaced. Demand is low. Scrap is trending higher. This scenario usually leads to pricing staying steady or declining. I think the mills know that this is a limited window. Kind of get it while you can.”

Lacklustre demand has kept US rebar prices from fully accepting this year’s price hikes (see Kallanish passim).

“The trading price is going to be somewhere between the price before the [January mill] increase and the price that is $70/st higher,” the mid-Atlantic distributor adds. “Each increase seems to lend some credence to the one that came before.”

This source does not blame the price increases on tariffs.

“First it was inflation, then interest rates, then weather, now uncertainty from the tariffs,” the distributor asserts. “I am not buying it. We are in a slow period, and I think those and a couple of other factors are all contributing."

Inflation and interest rates still play a critical role in rebar pricing, notes another buyer.

“Rebar is a one-trick pony that is very reliant on macro-economics to drive new construction,” states a southeastern US fabricator.