Turkey needs to reduce its dependence on imported scrap feedstock and invest more into value-added steel production to sustain its industry. The pricing dynamics of pig iron, a popular supplement to scrap, will change once the EU market closes its doors to Russian material. This was the conclusion of a panel at Kallanish Steel Scrap 2025 in Istanbul last week.

Turkey produced a record 41.8 million tonnes of finished steel in 2024, while billet and slab imports reached 7.9mt, a “game changer”, said Bilecik Demir Celik general manager Muammer Bilgic. However, following US tariffs, Turkey’s exports to the EU, which surged in 2024, will weaken going forward.

Last year’s imports into Turkey show that Turkish domestic prices were uncompetitive but also that there is a lack of supply for certain products, which is an opportunity to invest in their production, Bilgic continued.

Turkey needs to “reengineer” its steelmaking towards high-value added products and rely less on rebar and wire rod. To produce flat steel in electric arc furnaces, it cannot sustain relying on HMS scrap-based steelmaking in the long-term. Turkish mills will need to import some metallics from the Middle East and best use this in combination with imported scrap and semis, Bilgic added.

Turkey is eyeing crude steel production exceeding 90 million tonnes in the 2050s, but “with which raw material and for what markets will we produce that steel? It’s not logical,” Bilgic emphasised. Although many do not like to talk about it, the only solution to decarbonise industry is to reduce global demand for new production, he added.

Major scrap importers Turkey and India are both developing local scrap generation to decrease reliance on imports. While Turkey’s new TLDR scrappage incentive law is a good start, it only applies to cars under a certain sales value, pointed out Colakoglu Metalurji purchasing director Koray Gunay. He estimates 2 million tonnes of cars could be scrapped over the next ten years, which is “not much”.

Some hot-briquetted iron is meanwhile already used by Turkish mills but in limited quantities as it reduces production yield and EAF refractory life, while increasing energy consumption, Gunay observed. Colakoglu adds pig iron – which increases yield due to its carbon content – as feedstock to produce steel for customers who demand low copper content.

The rule of thumb is that HBI is 10% below the price of HMS scrap, while pig iron is 10% more expensive. However, once Russian pig iron is banned in the EU from 2026, that supply will be redirected to the global market, thereby changing dynamics, Gunay concluded.