Russian hot rolled coil exporters are cautious about providing export price indications due to the possibility of the rouble exchange rate strengthening. This would limit the potential for price reductions or maintaining values at current, low levels, market participants inform Kallanish.

On 7 December, the rouble strengthened to 99.4215 per dollar, up from its low of around 113 at the end of November, its weakest level since the start of the Ukraine war. This was a significant drop from 85 in September. The fluctuations in the exchange rate followed the sanctions announced on 21 November, which targeted numerous Russian banks, including Gazprombank, previously exempted due to its involvement in international oil and gas trade.

Russian banks and businesses have been rushing to complete transactions before the 20 December deadline, when the new restrictions are set to take effect, according to media reports

Russian mills are holding back on offers as the government debates the ideal exchange rate for the economy, further complicated by expectations of an interest rate hike at the Central Bank’s upcoming meeting on 20 December. Some believe higher rates could worsen inflation. Consequently, mills are waiting for greater clarity before making firm export offers or confirming deals.

New prices are expected to be announced once there is more clarity on the exchange rate for January production and February shipments.

Meanwhile, MMK’s HRC was reported available at $485/tonne fob Black Sea, although the mill closed December production sales. NLMK was heard to have material available at $500-505/t fob. Severstal HRC was available at around $470/t fob Black Sea port equivalent, although the producer typically ships from Baltic ports.

The most recent deals were reported for the Turkish market, where Russian mills sold large volumes. NLMK reportedly closed 50,000-60,000 tonnes at around $520-530/t cfr, while Severstal sold at around $500/t cfr.

For cold rolled coil, the extras on top of HRC were in the range of $80-85/t in the previous round of the deals, although there were expectations these extras would be revised to $90-100/t.