The EC’s announcement of the imposition of registration for all imports of Russian and Brazilian HRC has caused little stir among German market participants contacted by Kallanish.

“This wasn’t new news really,” Kallanish hears from one source, a view reflected by others. It was expected by anybody buying abroad, “… and everyone used to importing from Brazil has long ceased doing so,” one trader says. Indicating the earlier example of heavy plate, he suggests that gambling is not to be recommended. “I’ve seen buyers being relaxed, saying, ‘ok, I’ll pay 20% more then …’ and eventually it turned out 70%.” He adds that “I don’t know of anyone responsible who has continued importing.”

A buyer at a stockholder group confirms that caution has been the prevailing attitude among former importers, but also adds that Brazil only played an occasional role in previous months. “I don’t understand why the EC even bothers with measures against Brazil. With China, it’s clear. With Russia, well, it may have been spurred by the political sanctions,” he says.

With barriers against China, some likely against Russia and Brazil, and under discussion for Iran, Ukraine and Serbia, the volumes lost can hardly be compensated for by any other supplier country. India appears to be the most likely, but sources refrain from giving an opinion in this matter.

With domestic northwest European HRC prices currently standing at around €560/t ($596/t) ex-works, imports at prices above €515/t cif Antwerp will be hard to sell, the trader says. In the mid-term, however, he sees import prices rising. “It’s just a matter of time; maybe somewhat sooner in Italy, and later here.”