China's hot rolled coil prices managed to rebound last week after hitting two-month lows, accompanied by a clear improvement in domestic demand, Kallanish notes.

In Shanghai on Friday afternoon, 5.5x1,500mm Q235B HRC was traded at around CNY 3,410-3,430/tonne ($471-474/t), up CNY 60/t week-on-week.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most-traded, May 2025 contract for HRC gained CNY 30/t from Thursday and CNY 80/t on-week to CNY 3,443/t.

In Wuxi on Friday afternoon, assessed 20x2,000mm Q235B plate prices increased CNY 50/t compared with the prior assessment to CNY 3,480-3,500/t.

HRC inventory fell further last week after the first post-Chinese New Year holiday decline registered in the prior week. The weekly reduction was almost double that of the previous week. This effectively boosted the recovery of market prices.

In addition, weekly apparent consumption also ended its slight decline over half a month and rebounded significantly.

However, the performance of exports was slightly worse than that of domestic transactions. Subdued demand and competition from other supplying countries restricted any substantial growth in transaction prices.

Most quotations maintained stable or showed limited growth. For 1,500mm wide SS400/Q235 HRC, the most competitive offers were at $450-465/t fob China, rising a few dollars on-week.

Deals with Gulf Cooperation Council buyers occurred at the lower end of the range, around $450-455/t. Because China can only sell 2,000m width HRC to Vietnam following the latter slapping an anti-dumping duty on narrower Chinese coil, “the price [quoted from China to Vietnam] is slightly higher than this level,” several Chinese exporters commented on Friday.

SAE 1006 HRC offers have stabilised at around $475-480/t fob, which was quoted by some top-tier mills.

The GCC market has become the main battlefield for countries to “dump” HRC, but the price advantage of Chinese products is relatively weak, sources note. For SAE 1006 HRC, quotes from Japan and Taiwan are not much different from the $520/t cfr level given by Chinese suppliers. However, considering the proportion of 2mm products, Chinese supply may have the lowest price at present.

Kallanish assessed 2mm SAE 1006 HRC at $470-480/t fob China on 14 March, up $2.5/t from the prior assessment.