ArcelorMittal has lowered its forecast for global apparent steel consumption growth excluding China in 2024 to 2.5-3% on-year, from 3-4%. Customers are maintaining a “wait and see” approach, with the long-awaited restocking yet to materialise, the firm notes.

In Europe, while the firm assumes a decline in real demand, both automotive and machinery, the destocking that impacted apparent demand in 2023 is not expected to continue in 2024. The firm foresees apparent flat steel demand growing 0-2%, down from the previous 2-4% forecast, Kallanish notes.

In the US, although real demand growth is expected to remain lacklustre due to the lagged impact of higher interest rates, the 2023 destocking is also not expected to persist in 2024. Flats apparent consumption should grow 1-3%, versus the previous 1.5-3.5% forecast.

In China, economic growth is expected to weaken. “The continued weakness in real estate, and the lack of a significant stimulus means limited offsetting demand support from infrastructure spending,” ArcelorMittal notes. Steel consumption growth will be between a 1% decline and 1% growth, down from the previous 0-2% growth forecast.

In the first half of 2024, ArcelorMittal consolidated steel shipments fell 5% on-year to 27.3 million tonnes and crude steel output was flat at 29.1mt (see separate story). Revenue dropped 12% to $32.5 billion and net income slumped 51% to $1.44 billion. The firm says excess Chinese capacity and “aggressive” exports contributed to US and Europe steel prices being at below marginal cost.