The global copper market will rebalance sooner than expected if US tariffs are implemented in May, according to Goldman Sachs.

In February, US President Donald Trump ordered an investigation into copper imports over alleged concerns about national security, which is widely expected to result in tariffs. Even though the report was due in 270 days, Bloomberg says a decision could be announced in the coming weeks.

US buyers are stockpiling copper in anticipation of the levies, causing a global supply crunch at times of strong demand. The Comex price was up by 28% year-to-date on Friday at $5.11/pound, equivalent to $11,265/tonne – a $1,419/t price premium to the LME.

“Greater certainty on copper tariffs means Comex is likely to trade at a higher premium to LME, but there is less time to ship metal to the US,” analysts at GS say. “Assuming tariffs are implemented in May, we think shipments to the US will likely be fast-tracked, with net imports in April potentially jumping 200,000 tonnes above the standard 60-70,000 t/month.”

GS estimates that the increase in imports will be comprised of 75,000 t from ex-LME warehouses, 75,000 t which was destined for China from South America and Africa, 40,000 t of opportunistic shipments from elsewhere and 10,000 t lower exports.

With the possibility of earlier tariff implementation, analysts project US stocks to decline by 30,000-40,000 t/month from mid-to-late Q2 onwards, Kallanish learns. This would avoid a stock glut in the US in Q3, when global copper market tightness is forecast to be most pronounced.

As a result, the expected global tightness in the second half of the year will be less severe, reducing the risk on LME price forecasts. GS now projects LME prices to rise from $9,600/t in Q3 to $10,000/t in Q4 and then reach $10,700/t in early 2026.