The global passenger electric vehicle fleet is set to hit the 1-billion mark by 2050, unlocking unprecedented growth for the so-called transition metals, according to BloombergNEF.

The London-based research house, which is due to publish its Transition Metals Outlook on 3 October, said at a briefing during the LME Week in London that the fleet can reach 1.5 billion units, under a net-zero scenario (NZS). The positive outlook comes amid a global slowdown in EV sales and a knock-down effect on the battery supply chain.

Kwasi Ampofo, head of metals and mining research at BNEF, explains that the optimism reflects lower battery costs leading to increased price parity, plus the fact that most countries in the world have announced net-zero targets. Canada, Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Chile, Suriname and French Guiana have already legislated such targets, he notes.

If the predictions materialise, by 2030, the passenger EV fleet will reach 200 million units under the current economic transition scenario (ETS), compared with 400m units in NZS.

Penetration rates will average around 20% on a global level by 2040, the research shows. In the Nordics, however, 80% of the passenger fleet will be made of EVs. By then, the UK will have the second-largest EV share in its car market at around 66%, closely followed by China.

The outlook for battery storage is also bullish, with deployment reaching 0.5 terawatt-hours in 2030 under ETS and 1 TWh under NZS. By 2050, the figures could be 3 TWh and 4 TWh, respectively, Kallanish learns.

As countries move their net zero goals forward, demand for lithium-ion battery is forecast at 6 TWh by 2035. Of that, electric cars will account for 3.5 TWh. This, in turn, will drive “incredible growth” in the demand for metals, notes Ampofo.

Lithium consumption is set to grow fourfold in 2030, and roughly 10x in 2050, compared to 2023 demand. The outlook, based on a net-zero scenario, also estimates cobalt demand to double in 2030, while nickel consumption would rise 1.5 times.

BNEF expects lithium supply to grow with demand, but warns supply of cobalt will collapse as demand for the metal nearly triples by 2050. Supply of nickel, copper and manganese is also expected to decline, despite rising metal usage.

While supply deficit forecasts aren’t particularly new to the industry, BNEF notes that the need for more land for mining will add new challenge layers to the mix. It expects critical minerals to require four times the amount of land in 2050, compared with 2023, to enable supply growth.  

“If something drastic doesn’t happen on the supply side, we probably have to start having a second look at the energy transition in total,” concludes Ampofo. “We need to do something drastically to change the way we mine …  or else the negatives will also increase four times.”