China has finally escaped from 2024, which was framed by downward economic pressure. The growth target set at the beginning of the year was achieved, and Beijing says China should not be overly concerned by the state of the economy. The steel industry may not agree. Weak consumption, intense competition, and widespread losses have soured the mood.

The downtrend will be difficult to reverse in 2025. The government is repeating policies started last year to support some of the more robust sectors, but the core construction sector is likely to remain weak. 2024’s weakness led to a surge in steel exports. While the surge cannot be repeated, export volumes should remain high as China continues to restructure. China is therefore likely to continue to exert pressure on global steel prices in 2025.

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