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Bleak outlook for iron ore, but price holds

Bleak outlook for iron ore, but price holds (June 27, 2017)

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Last week, CitiBank published its revised outlook for the iron ore market. According to the latest analysis from the bank, iron ore prices are set to continue their negative trend in order to force producers to reduce output and rebalance supply and demand. Citi says that iron ore has to go below $45/tonne to trigger the reduction in output, while it estimates a surplus of 100 million tonnes this year, up from 60mt in 2016.

As a consequence of the surplus, Citi has lowered its forecast for the average iron ore 2017 price by $9/t to $61/t. That means an average of $51/t in Q3 and $48/t in Q4. Going ahead, the outlook for 2018 is even more negative, as the average price is expected to be as low as €50/t next year.

 

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