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The global steel sector and its raw material suppliers continue to be caught up in trends largely beyond their control. Changes in the steel sector, especially in China, have changed the way raw materials are bought and used. Global political shifts have pushed up oil prices, driving mining and shipping costs higher. The growing availability of scrap, plus the reform of the Chinese steel sector, suggest a shrinking share of steel produced from iron ore and coking coal in the longer term. The steel and raw materials sectors are meanwhile reacting to disruptions in trade flows caused by unpredictable policies in key economies.
The changing markets continue to throw up new opportunities however. New investments in capacity mean new customers for miners and scrap processors around Asia. A shift towards higher value steel products creates a need for higher quality raw materials and value-adding alloys. China’s push to become a bigger player in commodity derivatives provide new opportunities to hedge or profit. With so much going on we all need a roadmap to profit, so come to Kallanish Steel & Raw Materials Trade in Singapore on 23 November to share directions.
Singapore Marriott Tang Plaza Hotel
Address: 320 Orchard Road
Tel: +65 6735 5800
Submit an abstract to be a speaker and join the conference at the Steel & Raw Materials Trade Summit 2018.
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In the aftermath of the great commodity cycle, iron ore and coking coal prices have continuously found new sources of volatility. The impacts of China’s supply-side reforms and changing investment in mining and logistics capacity continue to push and pull prices for blast furnace materials. Diverging and converging spreads for varying qualities and impurities of raw material, create additional risk for miners, traders and end users which must be managed. Meanwhile, the growing importance of portside markets in China are pulling in a different direction to the growth of new markets such as India. Speaker will address these issues and more.
The biggest question mark over steelmaking raw materials markets is the development of scrap markets, especially in China. Will China’s market develop to become more open and efficient? Will supply grow so fast that it becomes an important exporter again? The sector is not only a Chinese story however. Asian scrap trade flows will shift as new capacity comes on-stream in Southeast Asia. The migration of induction furnaces from China in particular could lead to another shift in the market, including the balance between bulk and containerized scrap in the region. In the USA meanwhile, the impact of Trump’s tariffs will have a knock-on effect on scrap availability, creating potential for a tight market I the years to come.
Both raw material and steel trade flows are being affected by a shift in the geography of demand growth. As China slows, to what extent can Southeast Asia and India pick up the slack? Both have seen strong steel demand growth in recent years and expect explosive growth going forward. Both have also seen dramatic fluctuations due to policy changes and other factors. This volatile environment is now the core of investment in new steelmaking capacity, and therefore in steelmaking raw material consumption growth.
The steel sector has been adjusting to new evaluations of the emerging trade wars almost every week in 2017. The US has led the way with the most dramatic announcements, but trade in both steel and raw materials, as well as downstream products, has been a growing issue for years before Trump ran for office. A world of growing trade protectionism could be emerging as countermeasures are announced successively by each trade grouping. Is this an overarching trend or a short term blip for trade? What are the unforeseen dangers of tariffs spreading to other downstream and upstream sectors? Are there opportunities as well as risks as trade flows change?
With so much at stake, sharing views and opinions from across various sectors of the market is becoming ever more important. We will take the opportunity to discuss key trends with some of the seasoned hand and bright young minds in the industry today.
Chin joined SGX in 2015, and is responsible for the entire Commodities business at the SGX covering the bulks, freight, energy and rubber markets. In 2016, he was a key member of the SGX team involved in the acquisition of the Baltic Exchange. Prior to SGX, Chin was Senior Vice President of Asia Commodities at the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, and Head of LME Asia in Singapore, responsible for the LME’s presence and strategy in the Asia region. He began his career in the New Zealand financial markets as a rates and FX trader for ANZ investment bank in Wellington before joining Barclays Capital in London, and later on as Head of Commodities and Energy Risk at the LCH.Clearnet covering base and precious metals, power, gas, freight and agricultural products. Chin holds a Masters degree in Applied Finance from the University of Wellington and is a CFA charterholder.
Li Xinchuang has served in many roles previously including those approved by the State Council. He was Professor Senior Engineer, Vice Secretary-General of China Iron & Steel Association (CISA), President and Chief Engineer of China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute (MPI), Director of Technical Economics Branch of the Chinese Society for Metals.
Başak graduated from the Middle East Technical University, Faculty of Business Administration in 1997. She worked for Ernst & Young as an auditor and consultant until 2003, based in Turkey as well as in the CIS. Between 2003 and 2009, she lead re-structuring and strategic management projects of various large-scale industrial enterprises and a number of greenfield investment projects in Azerbaijan. During the course of her work, she gained extensive knowledge and experience in leading business relations and projects in the UK, Holland, Switzerland, Hong Kong and China. Between 2010-2013 Başak worked as the Marketing Director at OYAK Mining Metallurgy Group, including Erdemir and Isdemir, two biggest integrated flat steel producers operating in Turkey. Since 2013, she is the Chief Marketing and Sales Officer of the Group and since 2015, General Manager of Ersem, Erdemir Steel Service Company. She also undertook board member responsibilities in Turkish Steel Producers Association and currently serves as the vice president of Turkish Steel Exporters Association.
Biography coming soon
Ian Roper joined SMM (www.metal.com) in late 2017 to drive their international expansion and help bring their deep understanding of Chinese metals markets to a wider audience. Ian is a highly regarded industry analyst, with over 17 years experience in metals, starting at CRU in London. Since 2003 Ian was based in Shanghai, China initially with Steel Business Briefing and then Macquarie, before a five year stint at Rio Tinto running their iron ore analysis. Over 2010-2017 Ian worked as a sell-side analyst with CLSA and Macquarie based in Shanghai and Singapore.
Biography coming soon
Keyvan is the owner and Managing Director of Jame Tejarat Company (JTC) since the date of establishment in 2002. He has been exporting minerals especially Iron Ore to various markets but mainly to China for about 18 Years. He has 30 years solid experience in the field of mining production & export of commodities. He is a Member of the Board & Head of International Affairs of IROPEX (Iranian Iron Ore Producers & Exporters Association) since 2012. Keyvan has a Bachelor of Electronic Engineering, Master of Medical Engineering and Phd. of Radiology from Iranian Reputable Government Universities and numerous post-graduation courses in Mining, and Steel & Management Fields from Iranian & Foreign Universities. Currently, he is a Professor & Analyst in International Economy and Management and has numerous articles published in Iranian & international websites, news agencies & media.
Arshdeep Singh is a Director at Vital Solutions, a Singapore-based trading company which serves the supply chains globally for the paper and the steel industry via investments in supply chain linkages, financing, offtakes and long term contracts. Prior to this role, Arshdeep was the Global Trading Manager for ferrous commodities at Cargill for over 14 years, where he was instrumental in building their global scrap & metallics business .
Kirill joined Energoprom in March of 2016, before that during 10 years he worked for one of the leading steel companies in Russia – EvrazHolding as a Chief analyst in Strategic planning direction. Graduated from Moscow Aviation Institute, Economic Faculty in 1994, PhD in Macroeconomics and Modelling (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, 2004). From October 2007 to March 2008 worked as a fellow from Evraz in the World Steel Association.
Biography coming soon
Pralabh joined Wood Mackenzie in August 2015 in the coal research team focusing on Asia Pacific region. Pralabh undertakes a detailed analysis of coal mining assets, including production modelling, cost estimation and valuations. He also conduct research on Indian sub-continent coal demand and keeps track of international coal market for both thermal and metallurgical coal. In his previous role, Pralabh was working as a specialist in the Energy team at Rio Tinto providing industry and market analysis for supporting business development and establishing marketing strategy. He has worked extensively in India’s coal, steel and power sectors, covering demand-supply modelling, infrastructure assessment and policy analysis. He joined Rio Tinto from KPMG where he was working as a commodity analyst covering more than ten hard commodities. Pralabh has a Bachelor of Commerce (Honours), a Chartered Accountancy from the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India and a Masters in Business Administration (Finance).
Biography coming soon
Bryan is an experienced commodities trader and risk manager with over 13 years of experience in companies like Noble, Citibank and Deutsche Bank. He has lead regional trading teams across Asia for the last 10 years and has a strong knowledge of the Bulk commodity business here in Asia in Coal and Iron ore. At Citibank he lead the Iron ore and steel trading business for Asia Pacific while based in Shanghai for the last 7 years and then went on to develop the business for Deutsche Bank on both the Bulk and base metals side. At all of these places his focus was on managing the trading margin or developing new methods to manage the risk. Having a broad background in different commodity products & companies allows him to bring new ideas and methods to solving problems and helping clients. In Arcadia he now is managing the Sales and structuring for the whole Asia Pacific coordinating the risk management, physical sales and structuring for the wider group.
Head of Physical Market Sales for South East Asia, Edric is the key point of contact for our end user customers in Singapore and the surrounding region. Previously he worked at Mizuho Bank and was responsible for marketing commodity derivatives to corporate customers across the region. Edric is heavily involved in educating the end users of metal regarding the LME and hedging, and leads many of our training and regional seminars. In the early part of his career, he worked for a world-renowned airline, assisting in their jet fuel price risk management. Thus, enabling him to have a good understanding of end-consumers’ hedging requirements.
Dan is from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania - the birthplace of the US steel industry - and he started in the industry in 2009 with the original Steel Business Briefing. Prior to that, Dan covered police and military affairs in Beaufort, South Carolina, and spot news for the Valley News Dispatch in Tarentum, PA. As part of the North American Kallanish team, Dan covers flats, tubular products and specialty steel products.
Biography coming soon
Roger has 25 years experience in the ferrous sector. He has specialised in steel end use markets and is skilled at using and interpreting trade data as part of market studies. He is a vetted Expert on steel on the UK Register of Expert Witnesses. He has extensive knowledge of the world's steel producers, EAF and integrated routes, and their raw materials requirements, downstream assets and markets. He has performed due diligence on many international steel firms, and ferrous scrap re-processors. Recent work has included flat products, automotive steels including AHSS and UHSS, plate markets, cold rolled, galvanised and pre-painted steels. He has also performed work on long products, electrical steels and tinplate. Since 1993, he has been a close observer of the steel sector in China and its impact on the world.
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